Sports bets is often very profitable if a person know the strategies the particular “smart money” gamblers employ to consistently make income. One of the primary secrets that intelligent money gamblers use is knowing when NOT in order to bet.
Here’s a best case in point. We analyzed the Western side California vs. Louisville video game, and concluded that West Va had this edge in the video game. However , I also recognized that there were a good deal of random and capricious factors, and recommended to my clients that they perform not bet on this specific game. Here is my own analysis I released in advance of the game:
West Va versus Louisville
This game offers all the signals of being one regarding the most effective games connected with the year, together with each teams coming into the adventure 7-0. It’s #3 rated West Virginia versus. #5 ranked Louisville, both equally together with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s video game was a classic, along with Western world Virginia coming back again from being down massive in the independence day 1 / 4 to winning around overtime.
So what’s the game look like this year?
In case this video game were being played at a good natural field, West Va will probably be a 4-6 stage favorite. Since typically the game is Louisville, WVU is a 1-point underdog. Let’s see if this makes sense…
West Virginia is usually on an unprecedented rotate. Many people haven’t lost considering that Jan. 1, 2005, heading 14-0 since they shed to Florida Tech. In the last two seasons they’re 13-5 ATS too. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last nine video games overall, and 8-2 ATS in their very last 10 STREET games.
These are some very extraordinary stats that tilt typically the scales in favor involving WVU intended for tonight’s game. Plus, typically the additional reward is that WVU is usually GETTING +1 point. This may not look like very much, but in a shut match-up such as this, that spare point might make the change between a good push together with a loss.
But what about Louisville?
Louisville’s numbers may be almost as good since WVU’s -except when the idea comes to Louisville covering the point spread. In their particular last 10 games, Louisville is simply 4-6 ATS. Of which said, Louisville is in spite of everything 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Plus if you’re leaning towards WVU, here’s a daunting stat… Louisville hasn’t shed at your home since 12 18, the year 2003! During this latest run Louisville is hitting 49. some points for every game at home, while hitting only letting go of 15. seven points each game in home. In case anyone did not do the math, that means given that their own last home reduction they also have averaged beating their opposing team by way of about 34 points per game.
Even greater amazing, the average line in these games has only already been 21 points. nuovi bookmakers stranieri stands for Louisville has beaten the divide, on average, by means of 13 things per sport at home given that 2003.
Wow… how can anyone go against that?
Here’s just how…
The majority of those stats have been established during the july 2004 season. This year, 2006, Louisville has been nearer to good than great. They already have had recent games that has they already have only scored twenty-eight, twenty-three, 24 points. And the video games weren’t against Oh St. or Michigan. Many people were being against Cincinnati, Syracuse, plus Kansas St.
The bottom line is of which this is still some sort of close game to call. Yet the things i look regarding is West Virginia’s protection to carry the day. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St. can just about all hold Louisville under 40 points, then there’s simply no purpose to think WVU can’t have one to typically the low to the middle of 20’s. My honest endorsement is usually to lay off this specific game and not necessarily wager at all. There happen to be better games this end of the week with more clear-cut advantages.
The final score of this game was Louisville 44, West California 34. Lousiville won because West Florida had 6 fumbles and allowed Lousiville to come back a new punt for some sort of TD. The bottom line was that West Virginia’s edge wasn’t so big that they may still win immediately after making so many mistakes. By means of not betting on this sport, people critical regarding gambling saved money that they can put to better employ on future games.