Sports bets can be quite profitable if an individual know the techniques typically the “smart money” bettors make use of to consistently make money. majorsite of the greatest secrets that clever money bettors use is knowing when NOT to help bet.
Here’s a great example. I analyzed often the Western world Florida vs. Louisville game, and concluded that West Florida had the edge in the video game. Yet , I actually also understood that there have been a whole lot of random and unpredictable factors, and recommended to a clients that they accomplish not gamble on this particular game. Here is my personal analysis I released just before the game:
West California or Louisville
This activity offers all the symptoms of being one of the greatest games of the year, with equally teams coming into the adventure 7-0. It’s #3 positioned West Virginia vs. #5 ranked Louisville, both equally along with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s video game was a classic, using Western side Virginia coming back again from getting down large in the final fraction to winning throughout overtime, however,.
So what’s the adventure seem like this year?
In the event that this game were appearing played on some sort of simple field, West Va will probably be a 4-6 level favorite. Since typically the game is within Louisville, WVU is a 1-point under dog. Let’s see if can make sense…
West Virginia is usually on an unprecedented move. That they haven’t lost considering Jan. 1, 2005, intending 14-0 since they dropped to Va Tech. Through the last two seasons they’re 13-5 ATS as well. They’re also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 HIGHWAY games.
These kinds of are some very amazing stats that tilt typically the scales in favor connected with WVU for tonight’s game. Plus, the particular included bonus is that WVU can be GETTING +1 point. This might not seem to be like much, but in a close match-up like this, that special point will certainly make the difference between a good push and a loss.
But you may be wondering what concerning Louisville?
Louisville’s statistics are almost as good as WVU’s -except when the idea comes to Louisville in the point spread. In their very own very last 10 games, Louisville is merely 4-6 ATS. That will said, Louisville is still 7-3 ATS into their final 10 home game titles.
Plus if you’re leaning in direction of WVU, here’s a scary stat… Louisville hasn’t missing in the home since 12 18, 2003! During this existing run Louisville is hitting 49. some points per game in your own home, while averaging only quitting 15. 8 points for each game at home. In case anyone did not do the mathematics, that means considering their very own last home decline they have already averaged beating their particular oppositions by simply about 34 factors per game.
Even greater extraordinary, the average line in these games has only been recently 21 points. That method Louisville has beaten the divide, on average, by way of 13 factors per game at home given that the year 2003.
Wow… how can an individual not in favor of that?
Here’s just how…
Nearly all of those stats ended up piled up during the june 2006 season. Shock as to, 2006, Louisville has been nearer to good than great. They are yet to experienced recent games where they have already only scored 36, twenty-three, 24 points. These types of activities weren’t against Ohio St. or Michigan. They were being against Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St.
Basically that will this is still a good close game to get in touch with. But what I look regarding is West Virginia’s safety to carry the moment. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, plus Kansas St. can almost all hold Louisville under thirty points, then there’s virtually no cause to think WVU can’t have one to the low to middle 20’s. My honest endorsement will be to lay off that game and not necessarily guess at all. There are usually better video games this quick with more clear-cut benefits.
The final score on this game was Louisville 44, West Virginia 34. Lousiville won because West Las vegas had 6 fumbles in addition to allowed Lousiville to come back a good punt for a new TD. The bottom line was the fact that West Virginia’s border wasn’t so big which they may possibly still win following doing so many mistakes. By way of not betting on this specific activity, people critical about wagering saved money they can put to better apply on forthcoming games.